From my friend, Mathew Pollock of Global Property Guide, prices are pretty much dropping through the floor. Year to end of 2008 are showing a cross the board drops - well almost.Germany - UP 1.1% from a fall in 2007 of 5.15%. A flat market for much of 2008. An ageing population and steady mortgage rates has helped stabilise prices. A safe harbour in times of storms? Not going to make you a fortune, but you probably wont loose either.
Spain - DOWN -5.8% from a flat rise of 0.78% in 2007. The mar
ket can no longer rely on its dependence on "dinero del negro". It is often said that there are more 500 euro notes in Spain than any other EU country - having experienced shoppers paying their groceries with General Franco peseta notes in December 2001 (prior to the Euro) I can well believe the stories. Buying property without fully declaring the price has been almost eradicated since January 2006. This has meant that the full price has skewered the price increase for several years. Spain's geography is going to do more for its economy than anything the government or commerce can offer. From most of Europe it is an easy destination for your holidays. It has the infrastructure and the golf courses now, not some time in the future and that's why with all the over supply in property, I believe it will come back.
ket can no longer rely on its dependence on "dinero del negro". It is often said that there are more 500 euro notes in Spain than any other EU country - having experienced shoppers paying their groceries with General Franco peseta notes in December 2001 (prior to the Euro) I can well believe the stories. Buying property without fully declaring the price has been almost eradicated since January 2006. This has meant that the full price has skewered the price increase for several years. Spain's geography is going to do more for its economy than anything the government or commerce can offer. From most of Europe it is an easy destination for your holidays. It has the infrastructure and the golf courses now, not some time in the future and that's why with all the over supply in property, I believe it will come back. Bulgaria - UP 2.25% for 2008, but not as spectacular as 19.8% growth in 2007. This is another country where cash is king and it is well known for developers to accept considerable amounts in cash without registering with the local tax office. The market has continued to rise with nostalgic Russians flooding into the market in 2006 / 07. These nuevo riche Russians have vanished just as quickly as they arrived. Many developers are telling me that they have not seen any clients for months. A lot is riding on the new season. However, the signs do not look good. Although a non Euro country, £1 only buys 2 Lev's and not 3 - 33% drop in value.
Cyprus - UP 1% for 2008, but down from a high of 15% in 2007. Again this country has done well outside the Euro and growth has been amazing up until 2007. The issues now a two fold, one is simple greed of many developers increasing prices and secondly, the Euro has had in my mind a detrimental effect in the short term on prices. A weak sterling has caused all destinations to look more expensive. Cyprus does not have the infrastructure nor the golfing facilities as Spain and yet they expect similar prices.
A note on the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. I recommend that people do not buy in this disputed area.
Turkey - price information is not reliable at present and with inflation at around 9%, it is unlikely that prices have risen substantially about this amount 2008. What is interesting is that many developers do accept sterling helping to make prices attractive. Turkey is never going to take over from Spain or Cyprus in my view, but it is a beautiful place to visit and spend time. Will Turkey join the EU? Who knows, but if they do it is not going to be in the near future!
Out of 36 countries covered by the report only Germany & Cyprus showed a year on year increase for 2008.
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